New Report from EPS Board Member Linda Bilmes: Costs of Caring for Afghanistan and Iraq Vets to Top $2.2T by 2050

New Report Estimates Veterans Care Will Be Biggest Single Long-Term Cost of Post-9/11 Wars

PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND, BROWN UNIVERSITY – As veterans continue to bear huge physical and mental costs from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, particularly in light of the current disaster unfolding in Afghanistan, a new analysis from the Costs of War Project estimates the costs of caring for post-9/11 war vets will reach between $2.2 and $2.5 trillion by 2050 – most of which has not yet been paid. The report warns that the country may shortchange its promises to these veterans if the government does not make adequate budgetary commitments.

The report, The Long-Term Costs of United States Care for Veterans of the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars by Harvard University Professor Linda J. Bilmes, a leading national expert on veterans issues, shatters the author’s previous estimates in 2011 and 2013, adding $1 trillion to previous projections of the budgetary costs of caring for post-9/11 veterans. Long after the post-9/11 wars end, the largest single long-term cost of these wars will be benefits and medical care for the men and women who served in Afghanistan, Iraq, and related theatres since 2001, and their dependents. 

“The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have created a veterans care crisis, with disability rates soaring past those seen in previous wars. This will take a long-term toll not only on veterans, but the U.S. taxpayers that will bear these costs for decades to come,” said Dr. Bilmes. “With the implosion of the U.S. effort in Afghanistan, many veterans are despairing and advocates are worried about mental health and rates of suicide in the days ahead. This report looks at the long-term care needs of our veterans and provides recommendations for reducing the burden on these young men and women.”

Expenditures to care for veterans doubled from 2.4 percent of the federal budget in FY 2001 to 4.9 percent in FY 2020, even as the total number of living veterans from all U.S. wars declined from 25.3 million to 18.5 million. Yet the report notes that the majority of the costs associated with caring for post-9/11 veterans has not yet been paid and these costs will not reach their peak until decades after the conflict, as veterans’ needs increase with age.

Using data from the Department of Defense, Department of Veterans Affairs, U.S. Census and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dr. Bilmes describes the unprecedented strain on these veterans, who have served longer tours of duty, been exposed to more raw combat, and suffered much higher rates of disability than during any previous U.S. war. More than 40 percent of post-9/11 veterans – an extraordinarily high proportion – are entitled to lifetime disability payments, and this number is expected to increase to 54 percent over the next 30 years. By comparison, fewer than 25 percent of veterans from World War II, Korea, Vietnam and the first Gulf War have been certified as having a service-connected disability. 

Other factors contributing to the dramatic increase include higher rates of survival from injuries, more advanced and expensive medical care, greater outreach by the federal government to inform veterans of their eligibility for benefits, and more generous eligibility and benefit compensation. 

The report recommends the establishment of a Veterans Trust Fund to track and set aside the needed funding to continue the long-term care of post 9/11 veterans. “We have trust funds for Social Security, Medicare, and highways,” said Bilmes. “We need to establish a similar way for the huge commitments required to care for our veterans long-term to be acknowledged, planned for, and honored.”

“As we approach the 20-year mark of the post-9/11 wars, it’s time for a reckoning with how the U.S. will continue paying many of the costs of these wars for decades to come,” said Dr. Stephanie Savell, co-director of the Costs of War Project. “This report should be a wake-up call that much more is needed to support the veterans who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan.”

Read the full report here.

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This report is the latest resource from the Costs of War project, housed at Brown University’s Watson Institute and Boston University’s Pardee Center. The project was launched by a group of scholars and experts to document the unacknowledged costs of the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere.